What is Current Pain®?
In the option market, wealth transfer between option buyers and sellers is a
zero-sum game. On option expiration days, underlying stock prices often show
strange movements and bring heavy losses to option buyers. In the trading
community, it is widely believed that option sellers, usually institutional
traders, manipulate the stock prices and make options that they sold worthless.
Current Pain® is an estimation for
this price manipulation target based on options sold since last option
expiration date. At this price, those recently-sold options have the
lowest total market value at expiration. Option writers who sold options in the
last month reap the most reward and option buyers suffer maximum losses.
What is the Difference between Current Pain® and Option Pain®?
Option Pain® is
calculated based on all outstanding options in the market; including those
options that were sold from an earlier time (up to 2.5 years). Options written
in the past are less relevant to the current market condition. Option Pain®,
derived from all outstanding options, could be quite different from
manipulators' latest price target.
Current Pain® estimates manipulation target by considering only the
option-selling group's recent activities and it reflects the latest intention
of the price manipulators. Compared to Option Pain, Current Pain® could
be a more accurate estimation of the stock manipulator's price target.
Current Pain® estimation is designed
for monthly options and quarter options. Current Pain® estimation
works well for options with longer life span such as LEAP options expiring in
January of every year.
Can You Give An Example of How Current Pain®
Works Better Than Option Pain®?
We have actually observed many of such examples since we first constructed
Current Pain®. We will show here below a very impressive case: GOOG
on May 2008 expiration. On Friday, May 16, 2008, Option Pain®
for GOOG was $550 and Current Pain® was $580.
At 4:00pm ET, Google stock actually closed at $580.07, $0.07
above Current Pain® and $30.07 above Option Pain®!
Are Current Pain® Numbers Different
From Option Pain® Numbers?
The answer is yes and no. Current Pain® should be different from
Option Pain® most of the time, but they could be identical by
chance. To understand things better, you need to know option life. Here, we
will start with option cycles: Each stock has a corresponding cycle of months
that they offer options in; there are three fixed expiration cycles available
and each cycle has a four-month interval:
JAJO: January, April, July, and October
FMAN: February, May, August, and November
MJSD: March, June, September, and December
At any given time, there will normally be four
different expiration months trading on a particular stock. All stocks will have
options listed for the two upcoming expiration months along with two months
from their expiration cycle. LEAPS are long-term stock or index options that
expire more than 9 months in advance, and can last as long as 2.5 years. LEAPS
always expire in January and there are two series listed on a given stock at
any time. Using GOOG as an example, in August, GOOG have August and September
options available. Since it is in MJSD cycle, GOOG also has December and March
options. Two GOOG LEAPS expire in January of the next two years.
Coming back to option life, we see options should have been traded at least 2
months at the expiration (6~9 months for its cycle months and 10 months~2.5
years for LEAPS). This highlights the importance of excluding previous months
while estimating price manipulation targets. Options sold 2 years ago are less
relevant to today's market condition; therefore, it is important to look at
Current Pain® for options with long life. Using GOOG
as an example, expiration months are January (LEAPS), March, June, September,
and December (Cycle Months). Option Pain® in these 5 months
could be very misleading.
The shortest option lasts for 2 months. However, when the market is volatile,
Current Pain® is normally different from Option Pain®
for 2-month options, as we have seen in GOOG May 2008 example. In sum, it is
critical to look at Current Pain® , instead of Option Pain®,
for options with long life and in volatile markets conditions. Certainly, we would advise caution at anytime
while trading options.
Why There Are No Current Pain® in the
Weekend After Option Expiration?
The Saturday after the third Friday of each month is the option expiration
date. Current Pain® counts only option activities since the
expiration date. The Monday after last expiration date is the first day that
options are traded and Monday's new open interests are reported on Tuesday
morning. Therefore, there is no Current Pain® chart for three days,
Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Occasionally, the Monday after expiration happens
to be a holiday. In this case, Tuesday will be the first option trading day and
Current Pain® chart is available on Wednesday.
How Often Are Current Pain®Numbers Updated?
Both Current Pain® is calculated based on open interest
numbers.The new open interest numbers
are updated on Yahoo!Finance around 7:00 AM Eastern Standard Time.
Therefore, both Current Pain® and Option Pain® are updated in the morning.
Both of them remain the same in the rest of the trading day.
Option Expiration Is One Week Away. Will the Stock Manipulators Move the Stock Price to the
Current Pain® by Next Friday's Market Close?
The answer is yes and no. The Current Pain® number is the best estimation of stock manipulators'
target price based on what has happened as of today. But you need to know that the stock manipulators
are shrewd traders and they can adjust their target price.
Let us assume the Current Pain® today is $500 and stock price is $450. The manipulators can take
two approaches in the option expiration week.
(1) They could move the stock price up from $450 to $500 (Today's current Pain®) by next Friday and
destroy the value of options that they have sold.
(2) The manipulators could sell more $480/$490/$500 calls to the market and then moves the stock
price to $470. If the manipulators choose to do so, you will find that Current Pain® will rapidly
drop from $500 to $490, $480, and $470. In the end, Current Pain® and stock price will both be $470 on next Friday.
In the option expiration week, it is very important to monitor how Current Pain® changes from one day to
another. If the manipulators are dumping more options to the market, Current Pain® estimation will show
that the manipulators are adjusting their target price.
What Is the Small "®" Sign following Current Pain®?
Current Pain® is one of our trademarks/servicemarks registered at the United States Patent and Trademark Office.
Please do not generate Current Pain® estimations or related charts without our permission.
Our Company is currently taking legal actions against another company for trademark violation.
Can I Copy Your Statements or Produce Derivative Charts based Charts on Your Site?
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All contents of this website including statements and charts are registered matter at the U.S. Copyright office.
You may not, except with our express written permission, distribute or commercially exploit the content. Nor may
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We will take legal actions against anyone infringes our copyright (that is, without our permission, you copy,
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I Can Only See Current Pain® for One Stock in the Chart Above. How Do I Find Out Current Pain® For Other Stocks?
We offer Current Pain® and many other powerfully charts on subscription basis. With the subscription, you can check Current Pain®,
Weekly Pain®, Daily Pain® and Option Dumping® charts, and Option Barrier® charts. You can check over 2,500 stocks that offer options.
You can check all the historical numbers for the above 5 mentioned charts. You can also discuss with many elite option traders on our
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You can clearly monitor what Wall Street large firms
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You can check option actions for over 2,500 optionable stocks going
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